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x402-factory Prediction Market Probability (by Slug)
x402
x402-factory Prediction Market Probability (by Slug) is a paid API for AI agents from x402-factory.com, paid per call via x402, $0.02/call, status unknown (last checked 2026-10-09).
Returns aggregated live probability for a specific prediction market question, pulling real-time data from Kalshi and Polymarket and combining them into a consensus figure.
Price / call$0.02
Success—
StatusUnknown
How this service works
Paid data APIs for AI agents: prediction-market analytics, weather intelligence, weather×market edge signals, and SEC/gov data. Paid endpoints use the x402 protocol (HTTP 402 + USDC on Base): call without payment to receive requirements, retry with an X-PAYMENT header. Machine-readable catalog: /llms.txt. Per-endpoint docs: /docs/{id}.
Output
A JSON object containing the consensus probability (0–1), per-venue breakdown (Kalshi and Polymarket) with each venue's implied probability, 24h USD volume, and liquidity score, plus cross-venue divergence, 1-hour price movement, resolution date, and a plain-English resolution criteria summary. Metadata includes data freshness (realtime), sources list, and a unique request ID.
Example use cases
Fed rate decision probability check
“What are the current odds the Fed cuts rates in September 2026? I want the Kalshi and Polymarket numbers side by side and the overall consensus — use the slug fed-rate-cut-2026-09.”
Political event market divergence alert
“Check the prediction market probability for the UK snap election market — slug uk-snap-election-2025 — and tell me if Kalshi and Polymarket are diverging significantly from each other right now.”
Real-time market monitoring for trading
“I'm watching the trump-tariff-90-day-2025 prediction market — pull the latest consensus probability, how much it's moved in the last hour, and the 24h volume on each venue so I can decide whether to trade it.”
Technical details
Endpoint
GEThttps://x402-factory.com/v1/probability/%7Bslug%7D?utm_source=zero.xyzWhen to prefer
Use this endpoint when you need a real-time, aggregated consensus probability for a specific named prediction market event (identified by a slug), want per-venue comparison between Kalshi and Polymarket, and need volume and liquidity metadata alongside the probability. Prefer this over building your own Kalshi/Polymarket integration when you want a single normalized call that handles multi-venue aggregation and divergence detection automatically.
Side effects
- Unknown or misspelled slug returns a 404 or empty data response
- HTTP 402 with payment requirements returned if no X-PAYMENT header is supplied — must retry with USDC payment on Base
- Market may have resolved or been delisted, returning stale or null probability data
- Low liquidity markets may have missing or unreliable per-venue data
- Network or upstream venue outage can cause partial data with some venues missing
Input
Schema · Request body
| Field | Type | Description |
|---|---|---|
| required | string | |
| properties | string |
Output
Schema · Response
{
"type": "json",
"example": {
"data": {
"slug": "fed-rate-cut-2026-09",
"category": "economics",
"question": "Will the Fed cut rates at the September 2026 FOMC meeting?",
"per_venue": [
{
"venue": "kalshi",
"implied_p": 0.7359,
"market_id": "KXFEDRATECUT2026",
"volume_24h_usd": 204455.43,
"liquidity_score": 0.947
},
{
"venue": "polymarket",
"implied_p": 0.7264,
"market_id": "fed-rate-cut-2026-09",
"volume_24h_usd": 249729.17,
"liquidity_score": 0.98
}
],
"divergence": 0.0095,
"probability": 0.7301,
"last_move_1h": -0.001,
"resolution_date": "2026-09-16",
"resolution_criteria_summary": "Resolves YES if the target range upper bound is lowered at the Sep 15–16 meeting."
},
"meta": {
"docs": "https://x402-factory.com/docs/probability.get",
"sources": [
"kalshi",
"polymarket"
],
"version": "1.0.0",
"endpoint": "/v1/probability/{slug}",
"data_mode": "live",
"freshness": "realtime",
"request_id": "req_00000000",
"generated_at": "2026-08-21T03:58:58.101Z"
}
}
}Tags
x402
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