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x402-factory FOMC Dot Plot Median Shift Probability
x402
x402-factory FOMC Dot Plot Median Shift Probability is a paid API for AI agents from x402-factory.com, paid per call via x402, $0.02/call, status unknown (last checked 2026-09-14).
Returns live prediction-market probability that the next FOMC dot plot will shift its median federal funds rate path, aggregated across venues like Kalshi and Polymarket.
Price / call$0.02
Success—
StatusUnknown
How this service works
Paid data APIs for AI agents: prediction-market analytics, weather intelligence, weather×market edge signals, and SEC/gov data. Paid endpoints use the x402 protocol (HTTP 402 + USDC on Base): call without payment to receive requirements, retry with an X-PAYMENT header. Machine-readable catalog: /llms.txt. Per-endpoint docs: /docs/{id}.
Output
Returns a JSON object with the aggregated probability (0–1 scale) that the next FOMC dot plot will shift its median federal funds rate projection, per-venue breakdowns (implied probability, market ID, 24h volume in USD, liquidity score), 1-hour price move, divergence across venues, resolution date, the rolling date to the next meeting, and a plain-English resolution criteria summary. Metadata includes data freshness (realtime), sources (Kalshi, Polymarket), and a docs link.
Example use cases
Pre-Fed meeting rate path briefing
“Before the FOMC meeting this week, what's the current market-implied probability that the dot plot will shift its median rate projection, and how liquid are those markets on Kalshi?”
Macro signal for portfolio hedging
“I want to know if prediction markets think the Fed is likely to revise its median rate path at the next meeting — give me the latest cross-venue probability and any recent movement.”
Automated macro dashboard monitoring
“Pull the latest live probability that the next FOMC dot plot median will shift, including the 1-hour price move and when this market rolls to the next meeting date.”
Technical details
Endpoint
GEThttps://x402-factory.com/v1/evergreen/next-fomc-dot-shiftWhen to prefer
Choose this endpoint when you need a real-time, cross-venue aggregated probability specifically for the FOMC dot plot median shift — not just general Fed rate hike/cut odds. It is preferable to scraping Kalshi or Polymarket individually because it normalizes and aggregates multiple venues, computes divergence, and provides a stable evergreen URL that automatically rolls to the next meeting.
Side effects
- HTTP 402 returned if no X-PAYMENT header is provided — response body contains USDC payment requirements for retry
- Stale or unavailable market data if upstream prediction market venues are offline
- Resolution date may lag if a new FOMC meeting date hasn't been listed yet and slug hasn't rolled
- Low liquidity score may indicate thin markets with wide spreads, reducing signal reliability
- Empty per_venue array if no active markets are found for the current FOMC cycle
Input
Schema · Request body
| Field | Type | Description |
|---|---|---|
| properties | string |
Output
Schema · Response
{
"type": "json",
"example": {
"data": {
"slug": "fomc-dot-plot-median-shift-2026-09",
"topic": "next-fomc-dot-shift",
"category": "economics",
"question": "Will the September 2026 FOMC dot plot shift its median rate path?",
"per_venue": [
{
"venue": "kalshi",
"implied_p": 0.5666,
"market_id": "KXFOMCDOTPLOTMED",
"volume_24h_usd": 21469.26,
"liquidity_score": 0.776
}
],
"divergence": 0,
"probability": 0.5666,
"current_slug": "fomc-dot-plot-median-shift-2026-09",
"last_move_1h": -0.0033,
"topic_question": "Will the next FOMC dot plot shift its median?",
"resolution_date": "2026-09-16",
"rolls_to_next_at": "2026-09-16",
"resolution_criteria_summary": "Resolves YES if the SEP median federal funds projection changes from June."
},
"meta": {
"docs": "https://x402-factory.com/docs/probability.evergreen.next-fomc-dot-shift",
"sources": [
"kalshi",
"polymarket"
],
"version": "1.0.0",
"endpoint": "/v1/evergreen/next-fomc-dot-shift",
"data_mode": "live",
"freshness": "realtime",
"request_id": "req_00000000",
"generated_at": "2026-08-21T03:58:58.092Z"
}
}
}Tags
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