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x402-factory US-China Tariff Change This Quarter
x402
x402-factory US-China Tariff Change This Quarter is a paid API for AI agents from x402-factory.com, paid per call via x402, $0.02/call, status unknown (last checked 2026-09-13).
Returns the live prediction-market probability that the US and China will announce a tariff reduction deal within the current quarter, aggregated from Polymarket and Kalshi.
Price / call$0.02
Success—
StatusUnknown
How this service works
Paid data APIs for AI agents: prediction-market analytics, weather intelligence, weather×market edge signals, and SEC/gov data. Paid endpoints use the x402 protocol (HTTP 402 + USDC on Base): call without payment to receive requirements, retry with an X-PAYMENT header. Machine-readable catalog: /llms.txt. Per-endpoint docs: /docs/{id}.
Output
A JSON object containing the aggregated implied probability (e.g. 0.29) that the US and China will announce a tariff reduction deal within the current quarter, sourced from Polymarket and Kalshi. Includes per-venue breakdown (market ID, 24h volume, liquidity score), 1-hour price movement, resolution date, rolling schedule, resolution criteria summary, and request metadata (generated timestamp, data freshness mode, docs URL).
Example use cases
Trade policy briefing for portfolio manager
“What's the current market-implied probability that the US and China cut tariffs this quarter? I need the latest number from Polymarket and Kalshi, including how much it's moved in the last hour.”
Tariff-sensitive equity strategy alert
“I'm monitoring tariff risk for my Asia-exposed equity positions — what do prediction markets currently price as the probability of a US-China tariff reduction deal before the end of October?”
Economic scenario planning for AI research report
“For my Q3 macro outlook, what is the aggregated prediction-market probability across Kalshi and Polymarket that US-China tariffs will decrease this quarter, and when does that market resolve?”
Technical details
Endpoint
GEThttps://x402-factory.com/v1/evergreen/us-china-tariff-change-this-quarterWhen to prefer
Choose this endpoint when you need a single, normalized, real-time probability estimate on US-China tariff policy change aggregated across multiple prediction markets. It is preferable to calling Polymarket or Kalshi APIs directly because it handles cross-venue normalization, volume weighting, and provides a stable evergreen URL that rolls to the next quarter automatically. Best suited for agents that need a quick, machine-readable tariff-risk signal without scraping or parsing raw market data.
Side effects
- HTTP 402 returned if no X-PAYMENT header is provided — response body contains USDC payment requirements for retry
- Payment amount mismatch or invalid X-PAYMENT header results in payment rejection
- Underlying venue (Polymarket/Kalshi) market may not yet exist for next quarter's slug, returning stale or missing data
- Rate limiting or network timeout if payment facilitator is congested
- Market may resolve and roll to next slug at resolution_date, causing brief data gap
Input
Schema · Request body
| Field | Type | Description |
|---|---|---|
| properties | string |
Output
Schema · Response
{
"type": "json",
"example": {
"data": {
"slug": "us-china-tariff-deal-2026-10",
"topic": "us-china-tariff-change-this-quarter",
"category": "economics",
"question": "Will the US and China announce a tariff reduction deal by October 31?",
"per_venue": [
{
"venue": "polymarket",
"implied_p": 0.2917,
"market_id": "us-china-tariff-deal-2026-10",
"volume_24h_usd": 189792.42,
"liquidity_score": 0.917
}
],
"divergence": 0,
"probability": 0.2917,
"current_slug": "us-china-tariff-deal-2026-10",
"last_move_1h": -0.0053,
"topic_question": "Will US-China tariffs change this quarter?",
"resolution_date": "2026-10-31",
"rolls_to_next_at": "2026-10-31",
"resolution_criteria_summary": "Resolves YES on a joint or official announcement reducing tariffs on $50B+ of goods."
},
"meta": {
"docs": "https://x402-factory.com/docs/probability.evergreen.us-china-tariff-change-this-quarter",
"sources": [
"kalshi",
"polymarket"
],
"version": "1.0.0",
"endpoint": "/v1/evergreen/us-china-tariff-change-this-quarter",
"data_mode": "live",
"freshness": "realtime",
"request_id": "req_00000000",
"generated_at": "2026-08-21T03:58:58.099Z"
}
}
}Tags
x402
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