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polls.karbach.digital — Federal Election Simulation (Germany)
x402
polls.karbach.digital — Federal Election Simulation (Germany) is a paid API for AI agents from api.polls.karbach.digital, paid per call via x402, $0.02/call, status unknown (last checked 2026-10-28).
Returns Monte-Carlo-based federal election simulation results for German state and federal elections, including party vote-share forecasts, historical errors, and turnout projections.
Price / call$0.02
Success—
StatusUnknown
How this service works
Unabhängige Wahlsimulation für 18 deutsche Wahlen. Monte-Carlo-Modell mit 10.000 Szenarien pro Wahl, kalibriert und intern validiert an 34 historischen Wahlen (Leave-One-Out, MAE ±1.27 Pp). Alle 6 Stunden aktualisiert.
Output
A JSON object containing an array of election entries, each with: election name and slug, election date, previous election result (party vote shares), current model forecast (party vote shares), per-party forecast errors, voter turnout (actual and delta vs previous), mean absolute error for large parties, and optionally poll data and confidence/uncertainty metrics. Also includes source attribution, data license info, last-updated timestamp, and a disclaimer notice.
Example use cases
Pre-election party strategy briefing
“What are the current vote-share forecasts for CDU, SPD, Grüne, and AfD in the upcoming Bundestagswahl according to the karbach.digital simulation, and how large are the forecast errors for each party?”
Tracking Landtag election outlook
“Pull the latest Monte Carlo forecast for the Landtagswahl Baden-Württemberg — I want to see the predicted percentages per party, expected voter turnout, and how the model has performed in past elections.”
Historical model accuracy review
“I'm evaluating election forecasting tools — how accurate has the polls.karbach.digital federal election model been historically? Give me the MAE per party and the leave-one-out validation results for recent German elections.”
Technical details
Endpoint
GEThttps://api.polls.karbach.digital/v1/results/federal/%7Bart%7D?utm_source=zero.xyzWhen to prefer
Choose this endpoint when you need structured, quantitative German election forecasts backed by a calibrated Monte Carlo model (10,000 scenarios), especially for federal elections. Prefer it over raw poll aggregators when you want model-adjusted probabilities, historical validation metrics (MAE ±1.27 pp), and per-party error estimates rather than raw poll averages. Updated every 6 hours, making it suitable for near-real-time political monitoring.
Side effects
- Invalid or unknown election identifier ('art') returns an error or empty data
- Election slug not yet available (future or unannounced elections) returns null or missing data
- Stale data if update cycle (6h) is delayed
- Null confidence/uncertainty fields when no polls are available for a future election
- Network or rate-limit errors returning HTTP 4xx/5xx
Input
Schema · Request body
| Field | Type | Description |
|---|---|---|
| properties | string |
Output
Schema · Response
{
"type": "json",
"example": {
"data": {
"elections": [
{
"name": "Landtagswahl Baden-Württemberg",
"wahl": "bw-2026",
"datum": "2026-03-08",
"vorwahl": "Landtagswahl 2021",
"ergebnis": {
"AfD": 18.8,
"CDU": 29.7,
"FDP": 4.4,
"SPD": 5.5,
"Linke": 4.4,
"Grüne": 30.2
},
"prognose": {
"AfD": 20.7,
"CDU": 26.6,
"FDP": 4.7,
"SPD": 6.3,
"Linke": 5.3,
"Grüne": 29.7
},
"umfragen": null,
"konfidenz": null,
"beteiligung": 69.6,
"fehler_je_partei": {
"AfD": 1.9,
"CDU": -3.1,
"FDP": 0.3,
"SPD": 0.8,
"Linke": 0.9,
"Grüne": -0.5
},
"beteiligung_delta": 5.8,
"beteiligung_vorwahl": 63.8,
"mae_grosse_parteien": 1.25,
"mittlere_streuung_pp": null
},
{
"name": "Landtagswahl Rheinland-Pfalz",
"wahl": "rlp-2026",
"datum": "2026-03-22",
"vorwahl": "Landtagswahl 2021",
"ergebnis": {
"FW": 4.2,
"AfD": 20,
"CDU": 30.6,
"SPD": 25.7,
"Linke": 4.4,
"Grüne": 7.9
},
"prognose": {
"FW": 4.8,
"AfD": 19.2,
"CDU": 28.5,
"SPD": 27,
"Linke": 5,
"Grüne": 8.8
},
"umfragen": null,
"konfidenz": null,
"beteiligung": 64,
"fehler_je_partei": {
"FW": 0.6,
"AfD": -0.8,
"CDU": -2.1,
"SPD": 1.3,
"Linke": 0.6,
"Grüne": 0.9
},
"beteiligung_delta": -0.4,
"beteiligung_vorwahl": 64.4,
"mae_grosse_parteien": 1.05,
"mittlere_streuung_pp": null
}
]
},
"docs": "https://api.polls.karbach.digital/v1/",
"model": null,
"notice": "Scenario analysis based on published opinion polls. Not a prediction and not a voting recommendation. Coalitions are arithmetic majorities only, not statemen...",
"source": {
"polls": "dawum.de",
"processing": "polls.karbach.digital (Max Karbach)",
"polls_license": "ODbL 1.0",
"official_results": "Die Bundeswahlleiterin, Wiesbaden",
"polls_license_url": "https://opendatacommons.org/licenses/odbl/1-0/",
"official_results_license": "Datenlizenz Deutschland Namensnennung 2.0"
},
"project": "Ein Projekt von Karbach.Digital (https://karbach.digital)",
"updated_at": "2026-09-21T03:10:01",
"uncertainty": null
}
}Tags
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