polls.karbach.digital — German Constituency Election Results & Simulation

x402

polls.karbach.digital — German Constituency Election Results & Simulation is a paid API for AI agents from api.polls.karbach.digital, paid per call via x402, $0.02/call, status unknown (last checked 2026-10-28).

Returns historical election results and Monte-Carlo simulation forecasts for a specific German Bundestag constituency by number, including party vote shares and turnout across past elections.

Price / call$0.02

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How this service works

Unabhängige Wahlsimulation für 18 deutsche Wahlen. Monte-Carlo-Modell mit 10.000 Szenarien pro Wahl, kalibriert und intern validiert an 34 historischen Wahlen (Leave-One-Out, MAE ±1.27 Pp). Alle 6 Stunden aktualisiert.

Output

A JSON object containing the constituency name, and a history object keyed by election year (e.g. btw2013, btw2017, btw2021) each containing: Erststimme percentage breakdown by party, Zweitstimme percentage breakdown by party, total eligible voters (wahlberechtigt), total votes cast (waehlende), voter turnout percentage (wahlbeteiligung_pct), and the winning party (gewaehlt_partei). May also include Monte-Carlo simulation output for upcoming elections.

Example use cases

Researching swing constituency voting trends

“Pull up the full election history for Bundestag constituency 196 — I want to see how the vote shares for SPD, CDU, and AfD changed from 2013 to 2021, including turnout each year.”

Election forecast for a specific district

“What does the Monte-Carlo simulation say about constituency 61 for the next German federal election? I want to know which parties are most likely to win and what the probability spread looks like.”

Comparing Erststimme vs Zweitstimme in a district

“For German Wahlkreis number 145, can you show me how voters split between their direct candidate vote and their party list vote in the 2021 federal election?”

Technical details

Endpoint

GEThttps://api.polls.karbach.digital/v1/constituencies/%7Bnr%7D/results?utm_source=zero.xyz

When to prefer

Use this endpoint when you need granular, constituency-level German Bundestag election data — both historical vote shares and simulation-based forecasts. Prefer it over national-level polling aggregators when the user wants district-specific (Wahlkreis) analysis, ticket-splitting behavior, or local party strength. Distinct from the sibling endpoint returning nationwide seat projections or state-level Landtag data.

Side effects

Invalid or out-of-range constituency number returns an error or empty result
Constituency number passed as string instead of integer may be rejected
Endpoint returns stale data if updated less than 6 hours ago (normal refresh cycle)
Some historical elections may have incomplete party data for smaller parties
Network or payment authentication failure (x402 protocol) prevents access

Input

Schema · Request body

Field	Type	Description
properties	string

Output

Schema · Response

{
  "type": "json",
  "example": {
    "data": {
      "name": "Homburg",
      "history": {
        "btw2013": {
          "erst_pct": {
            "AfD": 4.64,
            "CDU": 39.77,
            "FDP": 1.36,
            "NPD": 1.61,
            "SPD": 37.62,
            "Linke": 9.06,
            "GRÜNE": 3.57,
            "PIRATEN": 2.37
          },
          "waehlende": 142644,
          "zweit_pct": {
            "FW": 0.67,
            "AfD": 5.6,
            "CDU": 36.59,
            "FDP": 3.79,
            "NPD": 1.75,
            "SPD": 31.89,
            "MLPD": 0.05,
            "Linke": 10.19,
            "GRÜNE": 5.12,
            "FAMILIE": 1.71,
            "PIRATEN": 2.48,
            "pro Deutschland": 0.16
          },
          "wahlberechtigt": 198117,
          "gewaehlt_partei": null,
          "wahlbeteiligung_pct": 72
        },
        "btw2017": {
          "erst_pct": {
            "FW": 1.24,
            "AfD": 11,
            "CDU": 33.56,
            "FDP": 5.14,
            "SPD": 31.41,
            "Linke": 10.97,
            "Grüne": 4.97,
            "Marxistisch-Leninistische Partei Deutschlands": 0.15,
            "Partei für Arbeit, Rechtsstaat, Tierschutz, Elitenförderung und basisdemokratische Initiative": 1.54
          },
          "waehlende": 145992,
          "zweit_pct": {
            "FW": 0.89,
            "AfD": 11.67,
            "CDU": 31.03,
            "FDP": 7.73,
            "SPD": 27.68,
            "Linke": 12.38,
            "Grüne": 5.65,
            "Deutsche Mitte": 0.18,
            "Partei der Vernunft": 0.08,
            "Bündnis Grundeinkommen": 0.15,
            "Piratenpartei Deutschland": 0.45,
            "Nationaldemokratische Partei Deutschlands": 0.54,
            "Marxistisch-Leninistische Partei Deutschlands": 0.08,
            "Partei für Arbeit, Rechtsstaat, Tierschutz, Elitenförderung und basisdemokratische Initiative": 1.23
          },
          "wahlberechtigt": 192410,
          "gewaehlt_partei": null,
          "wahlbeteiligung_pct": 75.88
        },
        "btw2021": {
          "erst_pct": {
            "FW": 3.16,
            "AfD": 11.61,
            "CDU": 26.12,
            "FDP": 7.89,
            "SPD": 36.59,
            "Linke": 5.24,
            "Grüne": 4.89,
            "Ökologisch-Demokratische Partei": 0.64,
            "Basisdemokratische Partei Deutschland": 1.49,
            "Partei für Arbeit, Rechtsstaat, Tierschutz, Elitenförderung und basisdemokratische Initiative": 2.35
          },
          "waehlende": 142288,
          "zweit_pct": {
            "FW": 2.4,
            "AfD": 11.49,
            "CDU": 22.88,
            "FDP": 11.24,
            "SPD": 37.24,
            "Linke": 6.61,
            "Piratenpartei Deutschland": 0.58,
            "PARTEI MENSCH UMWELT TIERSCHUTZ": 2.89,
            "Ökologisch-Demokratische Partei": 0.46,
            "Basisdemokratische Partei Deutschland": 1.34,
            "Marxistisch-Leninistische Partei Deutschlands": 0.06,
            "Team Todenhöfer – Die Gerechtigkeitspartei": 0.38,
            "Die Heimat (2021: Nationaldemokratische Partei Deutschlands)": 0.26,
            "Partei für Arbeit, Rechtsstaat, Tierschutz, Elitenförderung und basisdemokratische Initiative": 1.57
          },
          "wahlberechtigt": 185941,
          "gewaehlt_partei": null,
          "wahlbeteiligung_pct": 76.52
        },
        "btw2025": {
          "erst_pct": {
            "FW": 3.83,
            "AfD": 23.35,
            "CDU": 28.02,
            "FDP": 3.21,
            "SPD": 30.52,
            "Linke": 6.64,
            "Grüne": 4.44
          },
          "waehlende": 147979,
          "zweit_pct": {
            "FW": 1.71,
            "AfD": 23.73,
            "BSW": 5.77,
            "CDU": 26.05,
            "FDP": 4.24,
            "SPD": 22.04,
            "Linke": 6.69,
            "Grüne": 6.59,
            "Volt Deutschland": 0.55,
            "BÜNDNIS DEUTSCHLAND": 0.25,
            "Piratenpartei Deutschland": 0.28,
            "PARTEI MENSCH UMWELT TIERSCHUTZ": 2.06,
            "Marxistisch-Leninistische Partei Deutschlands": 0.05
          },
          "wahlberechtigt": 180479,
          "gewaehlt_partei": "Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands",
          "wahlbeteiligung_pct": 81.99
        }
      },
      "constituency": 299,
      "results_by_year": {
        "2017": {
          "wk_nr": 299,
          "gebiet": "Homburg",
          "turnout": 72,
          "waehlende": 142644,
          "zweit_pct": {
            "FW": 0.27,
            "AfD": 0.56,
            "CDU": 32.02,
            "FDP": 7.98,
            "SPD": 28.56,
            "Linke": 12.78,
            "Grüne": 5.83
          },
          "bundesland_id": "10",
          "gueltige_zweit": 139102,
          "wahlberechtigte": 198117
        },
        "2021": {
          "wk_nr": 299,
          "gebiet": "Homburg",
          "turnout": 75.88,
          "waehlende": 145992,
          "zweit_pct": {
            "FW": 1.31,
            "AfD": 11.2,
            "CDU": 22.3,
            "FDP": 10.95,
            "SPD": 36.29,
            "SSW": 0.59,
            "Linke": 6.44
          },
          "bundesland_id": "10",
          "gueltige_zweit": 143525,
          "wahlberechtigte": 192410
        },
        "2025": {
          "wk_nr": 299,
          "gebiet": "Homburg",
          "turnout": 81.99,
          "waehlende": 147979,
          "zweit_pct": {
            "FW": 0.55,
            "AfD": 23.73,
            "BSW": 5.77,
            "CDU": 26.05,
            "FDP": 4.24,
            "SPD": 22.04,
            "SSW": 0.25,
            "Linke": 6.69,
            "Grüne": 6.59
          },
          "bundesland_id": "10",
          "gueltige_zweit": 146668,
          "wahlberechtigte": 180479
        }
      }
    },
    "docs": "https://api.polls.karbach.digital/v1/",
    "model": null,
    "notice": "Scenario analysis based on published opinion polls. Not a prediction and not a voting recommendation. Coalitions are arithmetic majorities only, not statemen...",
    "source": {
      "polls": "dawum.de",
      "processing": "polls.karbach.digital (Max Karbach)",
      "polls_license": "ODbL 1.0",
      "official_results": "Die Bundeswahlleiterin, Wiesbaden",
      "polls_license_url": "https://opendatacommons.org/licenses/odbl/1-0/",
      "official_results_license": "Datenlizenz Deutschland Namensnennung 2.0"
    },
    "project": "Ein Projekt von Karbach.Digital (https://karbach.digital)",
    "updated_at": "2026-10-01T07:00:01.779851",
    "uncertainty": null
  }
}

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