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polls.karbach.digital — German Election Live Results & Simulation
x402
polls.karbach.digital — German Election Live Results & Simulation is a paid API for AI agents from api.polls.karbach.digital, paid per call via x402, $0.01/call, status unknown (last checked 2026-10-28).
Returns live Monte-Carlo election simulation results and (if finalized) actual vote share data for a specific German state or federal election by election ID.
Price / call$0.01
Success—
StatusUnknown
How this service works
Unabhängige Wahlsimulation für 18 deutsche Wahlen. Monte-Carlo-Modell mit 10.000 Szenarien pro Wahl, kalibriert und intern validiert an 34 historischen Wahlen (Leave-One-Out, MAE ±1.27 Pp). Alle 6 Stunden aktualisiert.
Output
A JSON object containing: predicted vote shares per party, actual vote shares (if available), mean absolute error (MAE), voter turnout, per-party deviation in percentage points, election name and date, percentage of votes counted, whether the result is final, data source attribution (polls from dawum.de under ODbL 1.0), and a notice about coalition arithmetic. Updated every 6 hours.
Example use cases
Live Landtagswahl forecast tracking
“What does the Karbach.Digital Monte-Carlo model currently predict for each party in the upcoming Bayern Landtagswahl? Give me the predicted vote shares and note any coalition arithmetic majorities.”
Post-election model accuracy review
“The Mecklenburg-Vorpommern election just finished — can you get the Karbach.Digital results for mv-2026 and show me how the predicted shares compared to the actual results, and what the MAE was?”
Real-time election night counting progress
“The Bundestagswahl count is ongoing — fetch the current counted percentage and live vote shares from the Karbach.Digital simulation for election btw-2025 so I can track how results are coming in.”
Technical details
Endpoint
GEThttps://api.polls.karbach.digital/v1/live/%7Beid%7D?utm_source=zero.xyzWhen to prefer
Choose this endpoint when you need poll-based Monte-Carlo scenario analysis or live/final results for a specific German federal or state election, especially when you need both predicted and actual vote share comparison with calibrated accuracy metrics. It covers 18 German elections, is updated every 6 hours, and is validated against 34 historical elections with MAE ±1.27 pp — making it more rigorous than a simple poll aggregator.
Side effects
- Unknown or unsupported election ID returns an error or empty data
- Election not yet started may return only simulation data with no actual shares
- Partial count data may be unstable until is_final=true
- Model covers only 18 German elections; non-German or unsupported elections will fail
- Rate limiting or payment failure (x402) if USDC payment not properly attached
Input
Schema · Request body
| Field | Type | Description |
|---|---|---|
| properties | string |
Output
Schema · Response
{
"type": "json",
"example": {
"data": {
"mae": 1.44,
"actual": {
"FW": 0.4,
"AfD": 38.2,
"BSW": 4.8,
"CDU": 4.9,
"FDP": 1,
"SPD": 35.5,
"ÖDP": 0.1,
"Linke": 6.5,
"Grüne": 5.7,
"PIRATEN": 0.2,
"Bündnis C": 0.1,
"Die PARTEI": 0.3,
"Tierschutzpartei": 1.1,
"Handwerker Partei Deutschland": 0.5
},
"turnout": 78.1,
"is_final": true,
"predicted": {
"AfD": 36.8,
"BSW": 4,
"CDU": 6.6,
"FDP": 2,
"SPD": 34.2,
"Linke": 9.8,
"Grüne": 5.1
},
"wahl_name": "Landtagswahl Mecklenburg-Vorpommern",
"wahl_datum": "2026-09-20",
"counted_pct": 100,
"election_id": "mv-2026",
"deviation_pp": {
"AfD": 1.4,
"BSW": 0.8,
"CDU": -1.7,
"FDP": -1,
"SPD": 1.3,
"Linke": -3.3,
"Grüne": 0.6
}
},
"docs": "https://api.polls.karbach.digital/v1/",
"model": null,
"notice": "Scenario analysis based on published opinion polls. Not a prediction and not a voting recommendation. Coalitions are arithmetic majorities only, not statemen...",
"source": {
"count": "Landeswahlleitung Mecklenburg-Vorpommern",
"polls": "dawum.de",
"processing": "polls.karbach.digital (Max Karbach)",
"polls_license": "ODbL 1.0",
"polls_license_url": "https://opendatacommons.org/licenses/odbl/1-0/"
},
"project": "Ein Projekt von Karbach.Digital (https://karbach.digital)",
"updated_at": "2026-09-21T02:57:01.985630",
"uncertainty": "During the count actual shares move; is_final marks the official preliminary result."
}
}Tags
x402
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