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polls.karbach.digital – Polling Institute Weights & Accuracy
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polls.karbach.digital – Polling Institute Weights & Accuracy is a paid API for AI agents from api.polls.karbach.digital, paid per call via x402, $0.02/call, status unknown (last checked 2026-10-28).
Returns accuracy metrics, house effects, and model weights for each German polling institute used in the Monte-Carlo election simulation.
Price / call$0.02
Success—
StatusUnknown
How this service works
Polling institutes: accuracy of final polls in past elections and average bias per party. Use when asked which German polling institute is most accurate or biased. Source-attributed, German data, updated every six hours.
Output
A JSON object containing: model weights per institute (numeric reliability scores), accuracy_final_polls array with each institute's mean/best/worst MAE and standard deviation across historical elections, house_effects_points showing average deviation per party per institute, total number of elections in backtest, a data explanation field, and metadata including source attribution, license, and last update timestamp.
Example use cases
Assessing pollster bias by party
“Which German polling institutes show the biggest house effects toward the AfD or SPD, and by how many percentage points do they systematically over- or underestimate them on average?”
Selecting the most reliable pollster
“I want to know which German polling institute has the lowest mean absolute error in its final pre-election polls — give me the ranked list with their MAE and how many elections they were tested on.”
Understanding election model calibration
“How does the polls.karbach.digital model weight different institutes like INSA, Infratest dimap, and Forschungsgruppe Wahlen, and what's the accuracy record behind those weights?”
Technical details
Endpoint
GEThttps://api.polls.karbach.digital/v1/institutes?utm_source=zero.xyzWhen to prefer
Use this endpoint when you need to understand the reliability, bias, or relative weighting of German polling institutes rather than actual election probability forecasts. It is the metadata/calibration layer of the polls.karbach.digital model — ideal for transparency reporting, academic analysis of pollster performance, or building your own weighted poll aggregator using the same institute quality signals.
Side effects
- No input parameters available — endpoint always returns full institute list, so no user-driven 404 scenarios
- Stale data if update cycle is delayed (data refreshed every 6 hours, check updated_at field)
- Empty house_effects_points for some institutes (e.g. Infratest dimap shown as empty object in example) — not all institutes have computed house effects
- Truncated notice/explanation fields in example suggest some text may be cut off in response
Input
Schema · Request body
| Field | Type | Description |
|---|---|---|
| properties | string |
Output
Schema · Response
{
"type": "json",
"example": {
"data": {
"explanation": "accuracy_final_polls: mean absolute error of each institute's last poll before past elections. house_effects_points: average deviation per party versus the o...",
"model_weights": {
"INSA": 0.7,
"Infratest dimap": 1.24,
"Forschungsgruppe Wahlen": 1.07
},
"accuracy_final_polls": [
{
"sd_mae": 0.38,
"best_mae": 0.42,
"mean_mae": 1.06,
"institute": "Institut Wahlkreisprognose",
"worst_mae": 2.13,
"n_endpolls": 19
},
{
"sd_mae": 0.58,
"best_mae": 0.43,
"mean_mae": 1.2,
"institute": "Forschungsgruppe Wahlen",
"worst_mae": 2.92,
"n_endpolls": 34
}
],
"house_effects_points": {
"INSA": {
"AfD": 0.8,
"CDU": -2.33,
"SPD": 3.1,
"Linke": 3.53,
"Grüne": -4.43
},
"Infratest dimap": {},
"Forschungsgruppe Wahlen": {
"AfD": -0.65,
"CDU": -2.15,
"SPD": 1.9,
"Linke": 2.42,
"Grüne": -1.3
}
},
"elections_in_backtest": 34
},
"docs": "https://api.polls.karbach.digital/v1/",
"model": null,
"notice": "Scenario analysis based on published opinion polls. Not a prediction and not a voting recommendation. Coalitions are arithmetic majorities only, not statemen...",
"source": {
"polls": "dawum.de",
"processing": "polls.karbach.digital (Max Karbach)",
"polls_license": "ODbL 1.0",
"polls_license_url": "https://opendatacommons.org/licenses/odbl/1-0/"
},
"project": "Ein Projekt von Karbach.Digital (https://karbach.digital)",
"updated_at": "2026-10-18 04:30:24",
"uncertainty": null
}
}Tags
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