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x402-factory Cross-Venue Prediction Market Disagreement
x402
x402-factory Cross-Venue Prediction Market Disagreement is a paid API for AI agents from x402-factory.com, paid per call via x402, $0.05/call, status unknown (last checked 2026-10-20).
Returns active prediction markets priced on both Kalshi and Polymarket, ranked by the gap in implied probability between the two venues, with direction, liquidity, and historical calibration data.
Price / call$0.05
Success—
StatusUnknown
How this service works
Where Kalshi and Polymarket disagree on the same event, ranked by gap — Active prediction markets priced on both Kalshi and Polymarket, ranked by how far the two venues disagree on the implied probability — with direction, each venue's liquidity, and, where each venue's own resolved history proves it, which has been better calibrated in that category. Derived analytics; the calibration claim is…
Output
A ranked JSON array of active markets that appear on both Kalshi and Polymarket, each including: the market question, category, resolution date, each venue's implied probability and USD liquidity, the absolute probability gap, which venue prices the event higher, and (where available) historical calibration error per venue for that category along with the sample size and time window used to compute it.
Example use cases
Arbitrage opportunity scanner
“Find all active prediction markets where Kalshi and Polymarket disagree by more than 15 percentage points — I want to see which venue prices each one higher and how liquid both sides are.”
Calibration research by category
“For economics or Fed-related prediction markets, which venue — Kalshi or Polymarket — has historically been better calibrated, and where do they currently disagree the most?”
Political market price divergence alert
“Show me current politics prediction markets where Kalshi and Polymarket have the widest gap in implied probability, so I can see if one venue is systematically mis-pricing the election outcomes.”
Technical details
Endpoint
GEThttps://x402-factory.com/v1/cross-venue/disagreement?utm_source=zero.xyzWhen to prefer
Use this endpoint when you need to identify specific markets where Kalshi and Polymarket have materially different implied probabilities, especially when you want venue-level liquidity context and historical calibration comparisons. Prefer it over scraping individual venues directly, or over general market data APIs that don't cross-reference multiple prediction market venues or compute disagreement gaps.
Side effects
- No markets found for the given category filter — returns empty data array
- min_gap value outside 0–1 range returns a validation error
- Category string too short or too long returns a validation error
- Upstream venue data unavailable may cause stale or missing implied probabilities
- Calibration data may be null if insufficient resolved history exists for a category-venue pair
Input
Schema · Request body
| Field | Type | Description |
|---|---|---|
| inputrequired | object | |
| output | object |
Tags
x402
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