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x402-factory Edge Signal Detail
x402
x402-factory Edge Signal Detail is a paid API for AI agents from x402-factory.com, paid per call via x402, $0.1/call, status unknown (last checked 2026-09-13).
Returns a model probability vs. market probability divergence signal with Kelly fraction hint for a specific prediction market slug
Price / call$0.1
Success—
StatusUnknown
How this service works
Paid data APIs for AI agents: prediction-market analytics, weather intelligence, weather×market edge signals, and SEC/gov data. Paid endpoints use the x402 protocol (HTTP 402 + USDC on Base): call without payment to receive requirements, retry with an X-PAYMENT header. Machine-readable catalog: /llms.txt. Per-endpoint docs: /docs/{id}.
Output
A JSON object containing: model_p (model-estimated probability), market_p (current market price/probability), divergence_history (time series of model-vs-market divergence), model_distribution (probability-weighted outcome distribution), kelly_fraction_hint (suggested fractional Kelly bet size), and risk_notes (caveats about data quality or model status). Also includes meta fields: sources, data_mode, freshness, endpoint, and generated_at timestamp.
Example use cases
Prediction market mispricing alert
“Check the edge signal for the 'fed-rate-cut-sept-2025' slug and tell me if the model probability diverges significantly from the market price — include the Kelly fraction hint so I know how much to size.”
Divergence history review
“I want to see the full divergence history for the 'us-recession-2025' prediction market slug so I can chart how the gap between model and market probability has evolved over time.”
Multi-market edge screening
“Fetch the edge signal for the 'sp500-above-5500-dec2025' market slug and give me the model distribution and risk notes — I need to decide whether the market is fairly priced before I enter a position.”
Technical details
Endpoint
GEThttps://x402-factory.com/v1/edge/%7Bslug%7DWhen to prefer
Use this endpoint when you need a quantitative edge signal for a specific prediction market — specifically the gap between a model-estimated probability and the current live market price, along with Kelly-optimal bet sizing. Prefer this over raw market data endpoints when you want a pre-computed divergence signal with risk annotations rather than raw order book or probability data alone. Best suited for algorithmic agents making or evaluating prediction market positions on Kalshi or Polymarket.
Side effects
- Invalid or unknown slug returns an error or empty data
- Payment not included returns HTTP 402 with X-PAYMENT requirements
- Stub model active — model_p may be placeholder values until production model is wired
- Single-venue markets lack cross-venue price validation, flagged in risk_notes
- Stale or missing market data may result in outdated divergence values
Input
Schema · Request body
| Field | Type | Description |
|---|---|---|
| properties | string |
Output
Schema · Response
{
"type": "json",
"example": {
"data": {
"model_p": 0.0276,
"market_p": 0.329,
"risk_notes": [
"model_p comes from the deterministic stub model — placeholder numbers until the production model is wired",
"single-venue market; no cross-venue price check"
],
"divergence_history": [
{
"t": "2026-07-18T12:00:00.000Z",
"divergence": 0.3014
}
],
"model_distribution": [
{
"p": 0.15,
"value": 25.1
},
{
"p": 0.2,
"value": 26.2
},
{
"p": 0.3,
"value": 27.5
},
{
"p": 0.2,
"value": 28.8
},
{
"p": 0.15,
"value": 29.9
}
],
"kelly_fraction_hint": 0.25
},
"meta": {
"docs": "https://x402-factory.com/docs/edge.detail",
"sources": [
"kalshi",
"polymarket",
"stub-model"
],
"version": "1.0.0",
"endpoint": "/v1/edge/{slug}",
"data_mode": "live",
"freshness": "realtime",
"request_id": "req_00000000",
"generated_at": "2026-08-21T03:58:57.936Z"
}
}
}Tags
x402
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